In three of the last four years, the NL representative in the WS has been swept. I don’t expect that this year, but expect a WS of six or seven games. I think the Rays are deeper in starting pitching, but Cole Hamels is the single best starting pitcher. Can he give the Phils two wins? If the Rays can get to Hamels…
But it looks like the Phils have the edge in the bullpen. It will be interesting to see how Manager Joe Maddon uses David Price in the Series—especially against the lefty duo of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.
Tampa 103 OPS+, 114 ERA+
Phils 103 OPS+, 115 ERA+
The teams didn’t play each other in interleague. The Phils were 4-11 in interleague (1-2 vs. Boston, if you were interested and had Boston won the AL Pennant). Besides Boston, the Phils faced the Angels (swept in 3), A’s (lost 2 of 3), Toronto (lost 2 of 3) and Texas (lost 2 of 3).
Tampa was 12-6 in interleague, going 5-1 against their “Natural Rival” the Marlins, sweeping the Cubs in 3, losing 2 of 3 to Houston, taking 2 of 3 from Pittsburgh, and losing 2 of 3 to St. Louis.
My friend Eddie sends a note that the Phils and Rays have faced each other 15 times in interleague play, with the Rays winning 10 times. Of course, this is a new season, new teams and a different time. Needless to say, here is a comparison (* is the edge, but you never know—Billy Martin outplayed Jackie Robinson in all the series where they matched up).
Tampa
C Navarro .295-7-54-102 *
1b Pena .247-31-102-132
2b Iwamura .274-6-48-96
3B Longoria .272-27-85-130* (rookie, called up 1 month into season)
SS Bartlett .286-1-37-20 sb 85
LF Crawford .273-8-57-25 sb 91 * (missed 1/3 of year)
CF Upton .273-9-67-44 sb 111
RF Gross .242-13-38-104
DH/Bench* Floyd .268-11-39-114
Baldelli 21 for 80, 117
Aybar .253-10-33-96
Zobrist .253-12-30-123
SP Shields 14-8, 3.56 122 (I give overall edge to TB here*)
SP Garza 11-9, 3.70 118
SP Kazmir 12-8, 3.49 125
SP Sonnanstine 13-9, 4.38 100
Bullpen ERA+ of Wheeler (140), Price just 5 g/14 IP (negligible), Miller (105), Howell (197) (Miller, Howell and Price would need to check Utley and Howard), Balfour (282), Bradford (307 since acquisition, 21 games/19 IP).
Phils
C Ruiz .219-4-31-61
1B Howard .251-48-146-123*
2B Utley .292-33-104-14-133*
3B Feliz .249-14-58-80
SS Rollins .277-11-59-47 sb 101*
LF Burrell .250-33-86-123 (Better power numbers and 102 walks, but if Crawford is healthy, I give him the edge because of the speed and better defense. But you never know…)
CF Victorino .293-14-58-36 sb 105 (Both he and Upton had great LCS’s. EVEN)
RF Werth .273-24-67-20-119*
DH/Bench Jenkins .246-9-29-77
Dobbs .301-9-40-109
Stairs Just 17 AB as Phil. Total .252-13-49-98
Bruntlett .217-2-15 54
I haven’t heard talk of using Stairs as the DH, but if I were Manuel, I’d consider it vs. the righties. While with Toronto, Stairs only hit .163 vs. Tampa this year, but had 3 hr and 5 rbi.
Hamels 14-10, 3.09 145 (best individual pitcher, but the package deal edge I give to Tampa)
Myers 10-13, 4.55 98
Moyer 16-7 3.71 120
Blanton 4-0 4.20 106 (13 starts after acquisition)
Remember ERA+ by Tampa came in the DH league.
Bullpen ERA+s? Lidge 229, Romero 163, Madson 147, Durbin 155, Condrey 137. Roles much more defined than Tampa’s. Edge * to the Phils here.
Lidge hasn’t blown a save all year. Is he due? The wild card in the Series could be Price. A key is how Price, Howell and Miller control Utley and Howard in the late innings.
No predictions. Enjoy what should be a six or seven game Series.
One question I do wonder. Next Saturday night, Game 3 of the Series will be in Philly. I’m not a fan of any Philadelphia team, even though Philly is 60 miles or so from my home. Just can’t take Philly. But you can sense the interest in my living area. HOWEVER….Penn State vs. Ohio State is Saturday night at the same time. What gets the higher TV ratings? I think a lot of thumbs will get the “remote control workout.”
5 responses so far ↓
1 Jason // Oct 20, 2008 at 11:26 pm
This might be just me Mike, but PSU-OSU gets top billing for me this Saturday. I love the World Series, but priorities are priorities, and having a stake in a hot college football race takes win over the very interesting “place” of a World Series in which I have no direct stake. I’ll check in on baseball, but the Nittany Lions will get my full-throated support first and foremost. I think we both smell amends for 1994, and it starts this Saturday night. Time to wrest control of (or from) the BCS and polls with top-flight performance.
Isn’t it amazing that Howard hit .251 but drove in 146 runs?
I agree about Hamels being the top hurler in the WS, but I think a Hamels-Kazmir Game 1 match-up would be tremendous. Kazmir s excellent at home (8-2, 2.90 ERA). This next thing might not happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lidge blow a save opportunity in the Series. I don’t think it’s that he’s due as much as the Rays’ ability to lay off junk and force Lidge–who doesn’t quite throw the consistent gas he once did–to be in the strike zone more against hitter who are just punishing mistakes.
Rays in six.
2 Jason // Oct 20, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Wow, typos abound–”a” top-flight PSU performance, “Kazmir’s” excellent home record, and “hitters”…punishing mistakes (potentially). Sorry. Good thing I teach and don’t type for a living. I’d have to pan-handle with a tin cup of pencils faster than you could say Alvaro Espinoza.
BTW, good point about Billy Martin outplaying Jackie Robinson in their head-to-head World Series match-ups. I’m currently reading Peter Golenbock’s “Dynasty,” an excellent book filled with oral history, and he and Martin make that very point. Boy, Ol’ Billy sure was clutch. What a pistol.
3 Mike Sommer // Oct 21, 2008 at 9:33 am
Maybe it’s because of the best-of-7 format of the Series where a team can lose a game but bounce back (or be down 0-2 and come back like the 1996 Yanks or down 1-3 and come back like say the 1958 Yanks) and by contrast, the seemingly” every week is sudden death” of college football. I can certainly see that.
See my previous post comparing Howard to some of Harmon Killebrew’s years (particularly Killer’s 1959 and 1962).
Agreed on Lidge. He is due, after all. Some may say overdue.
As for Billy….he joins the great list of WS unexpected heroes. It’s what makes the WS exciting. The Nippy Jones, Al Weis, Ron Swobodas, Mickey Hatchers. You never know which nondescript performer (and I could NEVER leave out Brian Doyle) has one shining week or moment of glory.
4 Mike Sommer // Oct 21, 2008 at 9:51 am
I saw the AP comparison and the only difference was them giving the edge to Burrell over Crawford. It’s a tough call. Power or speed? Burrell could give you 3 HR in the series. His D could also hurt you, as it is below average and Burrell gets replaced for D a lot. He does draw walks, he also whiffs a lot. No speed on the basepaths. 162 g. average of .257-31-103-119 OPS+, 97 walks, 158 K.
This year .250-33-86-102 walks, 136 K, 123.
If Crawford can get on, his baserunning could give the Phils fits, similiar to what Lou Brock did in 1964, 1967 and 1968 (Brock was one of the greatest WS performers ever).
Long time YFCR listeners know that Joe loves Crawford.
Crawford doesn’t have the OPS+ numbers (162 game average .293-12-76-53 SB, 34 walks, 99 K. OPS+ 102).
Missed 1/3 of this year. .273-8-57-25, OPS+ 91. 30 walks, 60 K. Doesn’t walk as much as Burrell, doesn’t HR as much, doesn’t whiff as much. But can fly. Two different kinds of players.
It comes down to whether Crawford can get on base and make things happen. For Burrell, whether he can make be patient, draw walks and jack one or two vs. the whiff.
Defensively, it should be no contest. Crawford’s speed (esp. combined with Upton in CF) let’s them track down balls that Burrell cannot.
5 Mike Sommer // Oct 21, 2008 at 9:53 am
*lets*
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