The Sommer Frieze

The NLCS is set, after the Phils beat the Brewers today 6-2. Jimmy Rollins immediately set the tone of the game, leading off the game with a HR. Pat Burrell hit 2 HR and drove in 4 runs in the Phils win. In the 3rd, Burrell (3-run HR) and Jayson Werth went back to back. So now it is…

Phils-Dodgers, with Philadelphia holding the advantage (games 1, 2, 6* and 7* in Philly *=if necessary). As I wrote before, it’ll be the 4th time the NLCS will be Phils-Dodgers (not counting the final game of the 1950 regular season, in which Dick Sisler’s HR gave the Phils the victory over the Dodgers, gave the Phils the pennant and avoided a Phils/Dodgers playoff). The Dodgers won in 1977, due to two things. First, the 9th inning of Game 3. After taking a lead in the bottom of the 8th (two runs, two errors, by Reggie Smith and Ron Cey, contributed), the Phils (and Danny Ozark) failed to substitute defensive specialist Jerry Martin for Greg Luzinski in left. Then, with two out, the Phils made not one, two or three, but FOUR mistakes. Add that to an UMPIRE’s mistake, and it meant doom and gloom. The Phils had won the opener in LA 7-5 behind Carlton. Sutton and the Dodgers creamed the Phils in Game 2, 7-1. So the series was tied. Phils hold the lead with those two runs I just mentioned. Carlton in Game 4 vs. Tommy John. Even if they lose Game 4, Game 5 is in Philly. Things looking good. Things looking BETTER after the 1st two Dodgers make out. So what happens. Vic Davalillo beats out a drag bunt while a PH. Manny Mota now is a PH. He hits one deep to LF. Luzinski misplays it. Mistake #1. Not having the defensive specialist Martin out there. Davalillo scores. On the throw in to second, Sizemore can’t field it. Error on Sizemore, Mota to third. SECOND mistake. This proves fatal. Davey Lopes then hits one off of Schmidt. He should have had hit. THIRD mistake. It ricochets to Bowa, who throws to first. Lopes is out, but the ump calls him safe. Umpire’s mistake, compounded by Mistake #2 (Sizemore’s error). Because of Sizemore’s error, Mota was at 3rd, not 2nd, and therefore scores the tying run on the Umpire’s error. Had the ump called it correctly, the game would be over and the Phils would have won. Lopes then is picked off 1st, but pitcher Gene Garber throws the ball away. Mistake #4. Lopes moves to 2nd, where he is in scoring position. Sure enough, Russell singles in Lopes. Dodgers win 6-5. The second reason is the next evening, John beats Carlton during “Hurricane Feeney”. Carlton, with his long stride, has some trouble pitching in the rain and the slippery mound. No problem for the finesse-pitching Tommy John. LA wins in the pouring rain and wins the pennant. Dramatic series.

The next year, a rematch. The Dodgers won the first two at the Vet, Game 2 being a CG shutout by the Phils’ nemesis, Tommy John. The Phils stayed alive in Game 3, but in Game 4, an error by usually reliable CF Garry Maddox kept the bottom of the 10th alive and Bill Russell then singled the pennant-winning run home.

The Phils got a measure of revenge in 1983, when the “Wheeze Kids”, led by NLCS MVP Gary Matthews (3 HR) beat the Dodgers in 4.

Frankly, the way they limped home, I really had the feeling that no matter who got in, the Brewers or Mets, that they wouldn’t be there long.

So a comparison.

Phils: 92-70. Despite the big bats (Burrell, Howard, Utley, Rollins), an OPS+ of just 103. ERA+ of 115. One thing overlooked: SB %. Utley was 14 of 16. Rollins 47 of 50. Victorino 36 of 47. Werth (Jayson Werth?????) 20 of 21. 136 SB, 25 CS. Wow.

Dodgers: 84-78. 65-70 at one point. 19-8 to close. OPS+ a pathetic 95. ERA+ 120. The addition of Manny does wonders for that OPS. He’s gotta have a big series vs. the Phils for the Dodgers to advance. Pitching-wise, I like the Dodgers. I just feel that a Lidge blown save is overdue. The Dodgers will have to split in Philly, take 2 of 3 at home, then split (or take game 6) back in Philly. For Philly, Hamels has to come up big with 2 wins. Can the Dodgers’ bats match Philly’s? C Russell Martin with 18 SB. They have Juan Pierre, enough said. Matt Kemp had 35 SB.

Torre didn’t manage against Charlie Manuel in the playoffs until now.