The Sommer Frieze

For his career, Robbie Cano is a .256 hitter with RISP. With 2 outs and RISP, it’s .243. These are stats from a guy who has a .306 career batting average.

The numbers. 1st number RISP, 2nd number RISP with 2 out.

2005 .207/.210
2006 .306/.259
2007 .290/.250
2008 .263/.295
2009 .207/.204

Hmm… let’s see what Matsui did last year. .303/.269.

Robbie at 5 gives the Yanks a look of R/L/S/R/L/S/L/S/L or R (Gardner or Winn). Girardi wants to split the lefties Cano and Granderson. Cano has a .306 career BA, K’s 74x a year but only walks around 28x a year. The person at 5 has to be solid enough to protect A-Rod. Otherwise, the bat just gets taken out of A-Rod’s hands. Not good.

If Cano falters, what would switching him and Granderson mean? Well if Cano goes back to his accustomed #7 slot and Granderson is #5, you get…

a .272 hitter as opposed to .306. 149 K per year as opposed to Cano’s 74. More walks, 66 as opposed to Cano’s 28.

Granderson at 7 keeps the speed at the bottom. You have Jeter 1, Alex 4 (probably 15-20 SB), Granderson 7 and Gardner/Winn 9. The lineup is more speed balanced with 1-4-7-9 than having 1-4-5-9. It would seem that the speed would be wasted at 4-5, two traditionally power positions.

Cano isn’t a good basestealer. 17 SB in his career, 21 times CS. So he does seem the better fit for 5 than Granderson.

So what is Granderson’s stats? Career RISP/RISP with 2 out  .263/.239. Full-time years only… 

2006   .258/.182
2007  .256/.329
2008  .299/.300
2009  .242/.187

Hmm…Great in 2008, pretty bad (esp. with 2 out) in 2009. Seems a wash with him and Robbie. The Granderson strikeout tendency gives #5 to Robbie.

But what if you wanted Granderson’s speed at 2. The lineup could stay the same with Cano at 7, Granderson at 2 (hopefully the whiffs would go down as he gets the Teixeira/A-Rod protection) and Nick Johnson at #5. How do Nick’s RISP/RISP with 2 out rate? The speed now is 1-2-4-9. Not “balanced,” but when the lineup turns over you have them stacked…except for Teixeira.

Nick career: .273 BA/ 110 K year. Strikes out more than Robbie, less than Granderson. Average about the same as Granderson, and Nick walks more (102 per 162 g.) than just about anyone.

RISP .279/.263 with 2 out.  Because of his injuries, I’ll just list the years where Johnson played in 100 or more games:

2002 .296/.313
2005 .311/.254
2006 .248/.217
2009 .313/.362

Hmm…the 2006 wasn’t hot, but those other numbers were pretty good. When I suggested Johnson at 5, some mocked because of the lack of power. It is something Kevin Long, the Yankees hitting coach, is working on with Johnson, and Nick has 3 spring training HRs to date. A more friendly ballpark could help Nick also. But it seems like he is the one with the better RISP numbers of him, Cano and Granderson. Johnson’s OBP numbers are superb, hence the desire by Girardi to put Johnson 2nd. I just hope I don’t see Johnson held at 3rd on doubles by Teixeira/A-Rod that a faster runner (Granderson) would have scored on.

We’ll see how Robbie does. As for me, I think I’d have left well enough alone, kept Cano at his #7 slot (a comfortability factor), protected the newcomer Granderson with Teix and Alex (and had the speed up top in Jeter and Granderson) and put Johnson’s professional at bats (Matsui-like; but maybe without Godzilla’s power) at #5.

It depends on Robbie. For if he falters, Girardi will be sure to mix things up.