The Sommer Frieze

It’s interesting to see some people’s comments on Damon and Matsui. Now don’t get me wrong. I am going to miss both of them. Clutch. Very good players. Hard to replace.

But in reading between the lines, I get the assumption that people expect the same from them in 2010 as they did in 2009.

Which, maybe, they accomplish. One thing I did mention to friends was this: The 2009 Yankees were one of the oldest teams to win a WS. Think about it. The #3 starter (ages at WS time) was 37. Your closer just short of 40. A 35 year old SS. The oldest SS to win a WS since Pee Wee Reese in 1955. Third base? 34. Not to mention a 38 year old catcher, soon to be 36 LF and 35 year old DH. How long could superb production out of that group have continued?

Matsui got a one-year deal. If he duplicates .274-28-90, OPS+ 131 more power to him. What are the odds that he does not? He’ll be 36 next summer.

Damon was apparently looking for a two-year deal. What are the odds that, at 36, Damon cannot replicate .282-24-82 with 12/12 in SB and an OPS+ of 126?

What are the odds that both, in 2010, start a decline?

Branch Rickey always said that it is best to get rid of a player one year too early than one year too late.

I’ll miss JD and Matsui. But people should not naturally assume that 2010’s numbers will be the same as 2009’s. It is why I consider Posada the key to the 2010 season. At 38, 39 in August of 2010, how close can he come to his almost unprecedented numbers for a catcher that he put up this year? .285-22-81? OPS+ 133?

38 year old catchers aren’t supposed to do that.

Can Jeter, 35 now, 36 next summer, hit over .330 again? How much does Andy and Mo have left in their arms? 

People have to remember 1965. After winning their fifth straight pennant and falling to the Cardinals in a seven-game WS in 1964, the Yanks had a 36 year old catcher who fell off the face of the earth. Ellie Howard went from .313, 84 RBI and 3rd in the MVP vote to .233 and 45 RBI. How many in Feb. 1965 saw that kind of drop coming?

Mantle was just 33 but had a body that seemed much older. Could Matsui’s knees be going like Mantle’s were? Who knows. But in Feb. 1965, who saw Mickey’s numbers going from 1964 MVP runnerup at .303-35-111 to .255-19-46?

Who foresaw Maris at 30 getting an injury that would preclude him from ever hitting over 13 HR ever again?

Who foresaw a pitcher who won 39 games over the prior two years (Bouton) going 4-15? Bouton was just 26.

Who foresaw the 37 year old Whitey Ford starting out 1965 3-6, 5.30 on his way to 16-13, 3.24…then going just 4-9 after 1965?

Who foresaw Pepitone dropping from 100 RBI to 62? After all, he was just 24.

It kind of reminds me of Bernie. We all loved him and miss him. But eventually the numbers do go down. In Feb. of 2003, who would have thought the 34 year old would drop from .333-19-102, OPS+ 141 to .263-15-64, OPS+ 107 and miss some forty games?

There is more. The point is, We hope that what someone did in the past translates to the future. But you don’t know. You just don’t know.

I’ll miss JD and Matsui.

But to think they would have replicated 2009 in 2010….you just don’t know.