The Sommer Frieze

I don’t know the supposedly “hard and fast” number that the Steinbrenners gave to Cashman—whether it was to lop the budget $15M, $20M or whatever.

But it is coming out how far apart JD (who confirms his Yankee years are over…but never say never again…however as of now) and the Yanks were.

JD and his agent, Boras, wanted 3-4 years at the same amount. $13M a year. According to some, JD came back with a two-year, $26M offer, but the Yanks responded with 2-years and $14M. Big difference, and you may have seen that Matsui got $6.5 with the team-with-the-name-that-is-way-too-long. Apparently Damon lowered his demand to 2 years and $20 M but by that time the Yanks had moved on to Jolly Old St. Nick (Johnson) for 1 year at $5.5 with mutual options for the same for 2011.

After the 2010 season it gets interesting. Jeter and Mo. A 36 year old SS and a 41 year old closer. Two of the best ever (in Mo’s case, the BEST) at their positions. Two Yankee ICONS, guaranteed in the future to be two of the last—if not THE TWO LAST—people introduced at Old Timer’s Days. How much to retain them? How long?

Could Pettitte be retiring after 2010? Could the Yanks hit the market then and reunite CC with Lee? Wouldn’t that be a dream…Andy retires and Lee (free agent) replaces him.

Not only that, but there would be another CC available then—Carl Crawford. I salivate at thinking CC/Granderson speed in the OF, on the bases and the lefty bats.

As long as you can draw a walk, speed doesn’t go into slumps.

There is a debate over at the LoHud blog regarding which reclamation project the Yanks should focus on—Sheets, or Duchscherer. Chad Jennings says Sheets. Sam Borden says Duchscherer.

I say Sheets. Let’s compare the two.

Sheets: is 31, 32 next July. Career 86-83, 3.72, ERA+ 115. Big problem is that he missed last year and has never pitched 200 IP in a season since 2004. Since 2004 he has pitched 160 innings in a season just once. He is a 4x all-star who K’d 264 in 2004. I don’t expect that kind of dominance again, but if he can come close to the 2.70 of 2004 (when despite the K’s and ERA he was just 12-14), 3.33 of 2005 (another hard luck record, 10-9) or 13-9, 3.09 of 2008, great.

But the real reason I want Sheets over Duchscherer is this (as long as the health of both are the same and good): Sheets has started his whole career. 221 games. ALL starts.

Duchscherer is 32. 31-24, 3.14 in his career. ERA+ 138. Yes, the ERA is lower, but Duchscherer did that all basically, in relief. Before the 2008 season, Duchscherer had just five MLB starts. He did have three solid seasons as a setup man 2004-2006, with ERAs of 3.27, 2.21 and 2.97. But those were AS  A SETUP MAN. The only real season Duchscherer started was in 2008, when all 22 appearances were as a starter before getting hurt. Duchscherer, like Sheets, missed all of the 2009 season. In 2008 he was 10-8, 2.54 when going down. Superb. 141 2/3 IP. But due to his prior role, it was the only season in Duchscherer’s career where he threw over 100 IP.  

And that’s it. Why I prefer Sheets over Duchscherer. The age (Sheets is 8 months younger) isn’t too much of a factor. Both are coming off injuries. But Sheets has started much more, and despite his history, seems more likely to give the innings (if healthy) than Duchscherer would.

Now if we were talking about bullpen help rather than getting a reclamation project for the #4 rotation spot, then I’d say Duchscherer. But we are not. We are talking reclamation for back-end, and letting Joba/Hughes battle for #5 with the “loser” joining Aceves, Gaudin, Robertson, Mo, Marte, maybe a Melancon in what hopefully would be a killer bullpen.              

Update: Looking at various blogs, I don’t know where people are sometimes. I see a lot of people talking Holliday/Yankees. It isn’t going to happen, people. I can understand your thinking about saving money (Damon/Matsui) to go after Holliday. I don’t believe the Yanks would match what the Cardinals supposedly offered Holiday. I do believe that there is a budget and that if it were more that the Yanks would have upped the ante for JD or Matsui but not both. They had in them 1) two leaders respected by their teammates and who had clubhouse presence 2) two guys with postseason success 3) guys who understood and could handle NY.

In short, quit the Holliday talk. It’s ok to dream that, but it isn’t reality or going to happen. Personally, I think Holliday goes back to the Cardinals. There isn’t a market throwing lots of $ at OF right now. I think Bay goes to the Mets. Who else has made a huge offer? Damon could go to SF, although I think that because of his arm, an AL team and DHing would be better. Damon could (as MLBTR notes) slide into St. Louis if Holliday turns down the Cardinals. As for Holiday, beware. Maybe his RF power translates well to Yankee Stadium. He did hit an AS game HR there in 2008 and he has power to RF. But hIs H/A splits aren’t the best. .351 with 100 HR at home. .284 with 52 on the road. JD isn’t a CF anymore, so I don’t see JD in Chicago. The Cubs will probably look to move Fukodome to RF. Could they now be players for Marlon Byrd? I read where they had Granderson interest. Soriano is in LF. No fit in Wrigley for JD.

Back to Holliday for a second. I don’t see the Colorado numbers continuing. A .318 career hitter, I can still see him hitting .300. I don’t see the 34 and 36 HR numbers but more like 25-30. 90 to 100 RBI, maybe 105 in a good year. Not the 137 again. He is a 133 OPS+ for his career. Excellent. Even knocked down to 120 makes him solid. In short, I see him as solid. .292-27-97 is certainly solid. I don’t think he’d be the .318-34-120 beast that others think he would be.

But I see him staying in the NL. I don’t see him being on the Yanks at all. No, the Yanks as I see it aren’t after Holiday. Yes, believe it or not, they have a budget which they are sticking to, and I believe Cashman when he says that pitching is their top consideration right now. … and with Hinske and Hairston both on the market, a utility guy is probably on their list right now as well. Someone besides Ramiro Pena. Hairston back would be nice. I don’t see DeRosa, since he is asking for too much.

Some talk (Cameron before, Holliday now) I wish would just go away already. Especially when you don’t see it happening.