The Sommer Frieze

Before getting into the main topic, I see that Tiger is taking a break from golf. Yup, this repair will need more fixing than that knee of his did.

This week, the Mike and Mike show had different opinions on whether Pettitte is a HOFer. 229 wins, 192 as a Yankee. 18 postseason wins. A true “Man of October,” meaning that you see the guy it seems, every postseason. I listed some positives, along with two 20 win seasons. He therefore has one more of them than 270 game winner Mike Mussina. Mussina had a 3.68 ERA with an ERA+ of 123. 270-153, 117 games over .500. I mention this because Mike and Mike gave a list of all those recently who were 100 games over .500. Pettitte is 94 games over .500. Pettitte, like Mussina, never won a CYA. Mussina had .92 career shares in CYA voting. Pettitte, .89. Andy’s ERA of 3.91 yields a 116 OPS+, but one year with the Astros does help (a 2.39 ERA). Great consistency. Postseason horse. Numbers a bit below Mussina’s but helped by his postseason record (18-9, 3.90) whereas Moose had tough luck (7-8, 3.42). I give Moose a better shot than Andy. Right now Andy could be borderline with the postseason work giving him a shot.

But let’s look at who he recently passed and who he may be passing. With those 229 wins, he has had 15 in 2007, 14 in both 2008 and 2009. Let’s give him 14 in 2010 just for discussion’s sake. That means 243 at the end of 2010.

Last year, Pettitte, who started with 215, passed Stan Coveleski (H), Jim Perry, Curt Schilling (future h?), Charlie Hough, Wilbur Cooper, Mickey Lolich, Fred Fitzsimmons, Earl Whitehill, Bob Caruthers, Kenny Rogers, Pedro (future H?), Jerry Reuss, Joe Niekro, Jerry Koosman, Hooks Dauss, Mel Harder, Paul Derringer, Catfish Hunter (H), Jim Bunning (H), and George Mullin. He is tied with Luis Tiant, Will White and Sam Jones.

Fourteen in 2010 would pass Charlie Buffinton, Tommy Bond…get ready for some  Yankees legends…Whitey Ford (H), Waite Hoyt (H), Clark Griffith (H but as owner), David Wells, Mordecai Brown (H), Frank Tanana, Herb Pennock (H), and would tie Juan Marichal (H). So where does Pettitte stand?

Over at LoHud, I remarked on something Sam Borden wrote on Posada possibly being the #5 if certain situations don’t work out. I am a bit leary of that because of Posada’s age (38, 39 next August). His 2009 was remarkable, and a remarkable comeback from the injury-shortened 2008. Only 383 abs over 111 games but .285-22-81 and an OPS+ of 133. Even more remarkable is the last full season he had before this one, the .338-20-90 of 2007 with an OPS+ of 153. At his age, that is unheard of. So where would Posada rank as far as a HOF catcher? .277 with 243 HR is good. He didn’t get to full-time until the age of 26 and that could hurt him (1998, .268-17-63, OPS+ 115). His career OPS+ of 124 is excellent. His later years work could put him in. 37, going on 38. Remarkable production.

By comparison, look at the following contemporaries and HOF at age 37 (or the year they turned 38):

Varitek is 37. Last year, .209-14-51. OPS+ 80.
Sandy Alomar Jr. at that age, turned 38 in mid 2004. 146 abs. .240-2-14.
Bench was retired. Munson sadly departed. Dickey serving in WWII.
Berra 1963. 147 AB .293-8-28; OPS+ 138. Good but nowhere near the playing time Posada had.
Campanella sadly paralyzed. Cochrane retired (beaned in 1937 at age 35 forced to retire).
Gary Carter had his last year at age 38. 285 ab. .218-5-29. OPS+ 82.
Hartnett .274-10-59 in 1938 age 37. 10th in mvp voting but only 88 games, 299 ab. Close to Jorge’s 2009 but not matching completely. OPS+ 123.
Ted Simmons (who, at .285, 248 HR, Switch-hitter, OPS+ 117 is close to Posada’s career statline) at 37 was .277-4-30 in 177 AB. OPS+ 93.
Dead ball era: Roger Bresnahan, retired. Ray Schalk, retired.
Josh Gibson? Dead.
Carlton Fisk 1985, 37 HR, 107 RBI, .238; Fulltime. OPS+ 115. 13th in MVP voting.
Maybe Posada can emulate Fisk, who in 1991 at age 43 had a .241-18-74 year, OPS+ 97.
Bob Boone .248-5-55, OPS+ 72.
Ellie Howard at 37… .256-6-35, OPS+ 98.
Javy Lopez…retired. Freehan, retired. Sundberg, 145 ab, .269-6-22, OPS+ 110. 
Walker Cooper 1952 Boston Braves, .235-10-55, OPS+ 79
Pudge Rodriguez is actually just a couple of months younger than Posada…but of course had some seven years in the majors before Jorge did. Those years of catching regularly took its toll. We know how little Pudge gave the Yanks at the end of 2008. This year Rodriguez went .249-10-47 for Houston and Texas, OPS+ 73. Compare that to Jorge’s production. 

One interesting one is Ernie Whitt, who at 37 hit .262-11-53, OPS+ 121 in his last good year. 

I may have written about this with Posada before, but what he is doing is unprecented except for probably Fisk. It is being noticed by HOF voters and would it be enough?