The Sommer Frieze

Mike Puma in the Post reports that Derek Lowe isn’t exactly thrilled by his offer from the Mets, feeling that he was low(e)-balled. There are rumors the Mets may go to $40M for Lowe, but still 3 years.

What should intrigue Yankee fans are these paragraphs from Puma:

An industry source said Boras indeed has told the Mets there’s a mystery team in the mix to sign Lowe. What makes the situation all the more complicated for the Mets is that Boras also represents Oliver Perez, the team’s second choice to fill the hole in its rotation should negotiations with Lowe disintegrate.

In this game of poker, the Yankees ultimately could come into play, as they decide whether they want Andy Pettitte back in their rotation.

If Pettitte isn’t retained - last week a team official told The Post it was “doubtful” the lefty would be re-signed - Boras could push hard to get Perez a contract in The Bronx. That effectively would drive up the price on Lowe, with the Mets knowing their top fallback option no longer is available.

That is assuming, of course, that the Yankees aren’t Boras’ “mystery” team for Lowe.

Well, we know the Red Sox aren’t a mystery in regards to Lowe. With the Penny signing, are they still interested? According to MLBTR, Lowe apparently told a friend that Boston never showed serious interest. The question remains as to what Boston wants to do with Buchholz. Given the Hanley Ramirez play that fell through, who knows?

So what is going on with Andy, the Yankees and others? Are the Yanks, in fact, looking at a replacement for Andy with a wealth of MLB experience (unlike Hughes or Kennedy, who the Yanks would then want to get more seasoning at AAA)? Is the “sure thing to return to the Yankees” not such a sure thing after all?

By the numbers:

Pettitte, 36, 37 next June. Offered $10M, a $6M cut from 2007. The offer has been out there for two months or close to that now. Andy isn’t biting. Time to move on? 14-14, 4.54 (ERA+ 98) in 2008. 2-7 down the stretch, and that 2nd win was in Andy’s last game of the season—the last game at Yankee Stadium’s original site. 215-127 for his career, 3.89 (ERA +117). How much is left in the tank? Will he accept the offer or will there be a compromise? 16-10, 3.89 average for his career, but a better gauge may be the last three years, one in Houston, the other two in NY. 43-36. That’s basically a 14-12 average. 4.20, 4.05, 4.54. Hmmm…. Face the facts, Andy. Slightly better than .500 pitchers at 4.20 aren’t $16M a year pitchers. The last three years speak volumes. The ERA+s have been 106, 110, 98. Slightly better than average. Meaning a #4 starter. #4 starters aren’t worth $16M a year. If Andy doesn’t like it, the Yanks have to move on. Thanks for the memories, Andy, but in this instance sentiment must be damned.

Lowe isn’t that much younger than Andy. He’ll be 36 next June, just one year younger. 14-11, excellent 3.24 (ERA+ 131) last year, but in the NL in a pitcher’s park. The NL West isn’t exactly the AL East, and Lowe did have a 5.42 in his last year in the AL. Puma states that what may have started out as Boras wanting 5 years (with the final year being at age 40) $90M may now be 4 years and $60M. The Mets were at $36M for 3 years, and may go to $40M. That’s it. $12M at 38 isn’t bad. 126-107 for his career, 85 saves because of his three years in the bullpen for Boston. Because of those years, you can’t really go by his 162 g. average. So how about his last three years compared to Andy’s? 42-33. Average of 14-11. Hmmm…..just about the same as Andy. The ERAs are better, 3.63, 3.88 and 3.24. But the big thing is the NL/AL transition. That would add to an ERA. Let’s add 1/2 run a game due to the AL, the DH, the AL East, etc. 4.13, 4.38 and 3.74…Andy’s (and yes, Andy had one year in the NL with the short LF in Houston) 4.20, 4.05 and 4.54. Better comparison? About even except for last year. Razor-thin edge to Lowe here. But if razor-thin and Andy is a #4 not worth $16M a year, then what of Lowe? In Lowe’s defense, the Dodgers of 2007 and 2008 both had OPS+ marks below the league average. So maybe instead of 42-33, he should have been 46-29. 15-10 average over those years. Ok, moves him to a 2 or 3. But I wouldn’t go ace, and not at that age, and not ace $$$$.

As for Perez, I’d like to know the figures Boras wants for him. Oliver Perez has untapped, unrealized potential. Reader Jeff has filled us in on how exasperating Perez was in Pittsburgh. Perez’s 2006 was a bust. 10-7, 4.22 in 2008 (ERA+ 100). 55-60, 4.39 (ERA+ 96) for his career. Slightly worse than average. 27, in his prime, works for him. The last three years? 28-30. Basically a 9-10 average. 6.55, 3.56, 4.22. Wildly inconsistent. 3-13 in 2006. 15-10 in 2007. Flip a coin. Good Perez or Bad Perez. Which one do you get? He made $6.5M in 2008 and if Boras wants anything close to $10M for him he’s crazy. As a Yankee fan, I hope they are NOT interested in Perez. Given a choice between him and the kids (Hughes, Kennedy) I go with the kids. You can get the same result (.500, league average pitcher…we hope…after all, we got nada in 2008) for a much lower price, and younger with room to grow. If the Yanks get Andy, one year at the terms offered. If Lowe, then what the Mets offered. (and apparently the Yanks aren’t interested, but you never know…) Maybe not even the third year. Two with an option.

But what moves do the Yanks have left in them? Besides egg nog, what else has Cashman been concocting over the holidays?

MLBTR has interesting scenarios. About Lowe, it states that the Yanks don’t seem interested. Understandable, given the three big fish they did catch. MLBTR states to count the Nats out for Manny but SF in. In any regard, it appears Manny has very limited options, and as a result, Manny and the Dodgers will be starting talks again very soon. There are Milton Bradley rumors regarding the Cubs and the Nats.

But you know what they say with rumors. Hey, in 2009, it’s one thing you can get for free.

Derrick Turnbow signed with Texas. He missed most of the 2008 season.