The Sommer Frieze

Pete Abraham has a good article of players the Yanks (and others) should be careful of going after.

Pete also links to Rich Lederer of the Baseball Analysts, who thinks the Yanks got the better end of the Swisher deal. Good stuff.

Phil Hughes had a good outing yesterday, as he lowered his ERA from 4.50 in the AFL to 3.60. 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 walk, 6 Ks. The stats (1-0, 3.60) aren’t bad, but he has been inconsistent, something to be expected from a 22 year old. Remember how many pitchers in the AFL are older than Hughes (108 of 122). Jeremy Bleich lowered his ERA in Hawaii to 1.77 but took the loss. He’s now 3-2. Kevin Whelan got roughed up and saw his ERA jump from 0.63 to 2.35.

Jeff Passan at Yahoo Sports has a list of free agents and he ranks them, with comments. Try to find it and check it out if you can (I printed out the list for myself). He calls Oliver Perez, ranked #15, the “great mystery of the Class of ‘09.” Yesterday I discussed Brad Penny, one day after mentioning Perez. Penny, ranked #19, is described as thus: ”…some team will give Penny a deal based on his past production, even if his arm isn’t 100 percent.”

Looking at C.C. (#1) the risk is the contract length. Burnett is ranked #4 and the risk is his injury history and lack of durability. It seems to me that he has the stuff of his former teammate Beckett, but needs some of Josh’s b**s. Sheets is at #8, but Passan says if healthy (a big if), he’s better than Burnett and nearly C. C.’s equivalent. If so, should the Yanks target Sheets and make it a Brewer double-dip?

Lowe is ranked #10, with his age (35 on opening day) working against him. Which brings us to Dempster, ranked #12.  (I’ve already discussed, #21,  Jon Garland).

Ryan Dempster had a good year for the Cubs, and at the right time. 17-6, 2.96, ERA+ 151, 6th in CYA voting. He gets to take that into the market. But there are things that worry me. Starter to closer (Combined 3-16, 52 saves for 2006/2007 with ERAs of 4.80 and 4.73 in those years) back to starter. Going from 66 2/3 to 206 2/3 IP from 2007 to 2008, and let’s face it…Piniella has never been known as a pitcher’s manager. 76-81, 4.55 in his career. ERA+ 95. So take away 2008 and you have 59-75. He may get a lot based on last year, but really….look at the 39-35 from 2000-2002 (and the ERAs in 2001 and 2002 were not good) with the Marlins and Reds (when he started) and figure on him more as a 13-12 type pitcher. That is, if the increased workload of 2008 doesn’t affect him (32 next May) in 2009. He’s had some nice years, and some lousy ones. I’d stay away from him if I were the Yanks.

Kevin Kernan has an article on Derek Lowe in today’s Post. Lowe is his recommendation, and I’m inclined to agree. I’d like to get younger than Lowe. Still, if Lowe is the “replacement” for Mussina, then a soon-to-be 40 year old is replaced by someone who turns 36 next June. Ok, a little improvement age-wise. I would like a strikeout pitcher, such as an A. J. Burnett (32 in January) or an Oliver Perez (when on). Even a 30 year old Ben Sheets. But regarding Burnett, Sheets and also Brad Penny…as we found out from Pavano, a pitcher can’t help you if he doesn’t take the mound. The Yanks want innings (and, of couse, wins). Getting someone who will miss eight starts a year won’t help. Remember who was #3 in starts for the Yanks in 2008—Darrell Rasner. After Pettitte (204) and Mussina (200 1/3), #3 in IP was…Rasner, with 113 1/3. Think C. C. and Lowe won’t help that? It’s one reason Matt Cain’s name came up for a trade. As Kernan points out, Lowe has made 32 or more starts each year since going into the rotation in 2002. 200 or more IP each year since 2002 except for two years, and in one of those two years he was just two outs short of 200 IP. Sabathia 253 IP last year, 241 in 2007. You do worry about accumulated use, but C. C. and Lowe, unlike Burnett and Sheets, have track records of taking the ball. Lowe brings a consistency not possessed by Perez or Dempster. He has the Boston-NY, A.L. East experience. I wish Lowe was more of a strikeout pitcher, especially if he joins a staff with Wang and Pettitte (Joba and C.C. get the K’s), but Lowe appears to be more of the sure thing, even if he is making that NL to AL transition. The IP, experience (NY/Boston, AL East, postseason), reliability all point in Lowe’s direction as opposed to the others. The AL East experience of Burnett probably gives him an edge over Sheets.

So how to you handicap the “C.C. sidekick” race? Here is a guess: #1 option: Lowe. #2 A.J. #3 Sheets. #4 Perez. #5 Penny #6 Garland #7 Dempster. Based on his last six years, I’d expect 14-11, 3.80 to 4.20 from Lowe. Remember that in his last year in the AL (2004), Lowe had a 5.42 ERA. Still, you wind up with 1) C.C., 2) Wang, 3A) Lowe, 3B) Pettitte (I’d expect both to be about equal) and 5) Joba….and what a #5 Joba could be. 

BTW, Randy Johnson is out there. But let’s not even go there, shall we?

Time to go and catch some NFL football. Catch you later.

BTW, one final note: Even though YFCR is on hiatus right now, our buddy Ty Hildenbrandt stays busy. Check out his columns on SI “On Campus” regarding college football. Once that’s done, Ty does college basketball. One busy dude.