The Sommer Frieze

As you probably know by now, and as you saw from yesterday’s blog post which quoted from various sources, the Yanks have made C. C. Sabathia an offer. One in which Pete Abraham accurately assesses as telling the rest of baseball “Don’t….even…..try….”.

In very simple terms, it equals or matches the offer given to Johan Santana last year by the Mets. Now I know what you are thinking. Why not just do it last year for Santana? But put it this way. Last year, it’s a trade. This year, it’s just money (God, how I hate writing that, especially with people getting laid off and in discussing about $140M or more over six years). You know what I mean though. No giving up of players. Free agency vs. a trade. Keeping players like Melky, Hughes, Kennedy….who may or may not pan out. But if they DO pan out, they are STILL YOURS.

Abraham continues:

There are indications the Yankees will open negotiations with Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett by early next week. When Brian Cashman says he wants multiple starters, he very well could mean Sabathia, Lowe or Burnett and Andy Pettitte.

That would close the door to Teixeira and Ramirez. But I’m not sure those doors were ever much open to start with.

With Swisher, and with Ca$hman’s comments of yesterday, I consider the Teixeria door closed. I don’t think they ever seriously considered Manny. I think that it was something out of Hank’s big mouth, saying “we’ll look at him” just like they “looked at” Bonds at the trade deadline. Meaning “how about ____ “, getting a resounding “NO!” and moving on.

Pete continues:

[Hank] lSteinbrenner confirmed that Brian Cashman made an offer to CC Sabathia. Then he added: “And we’re prepared to make offers to (A.J.) Burnett and (Derek) Lowe. I’m starting to become very optimistic. I think it’s going to be mutually beneficial to us and for these particular players that we’re after for them to join the Yankees.”

Offers are a long way from acceptance. But if the Yankees are seeking Sabathia, Burnett and Lowe, are they prepared to leave Andy Pettitte by the side of the road? Or are they offering three, hoping to get two and then moving on to Pettitte?

One thing is fairly certain: They’re not messing around.

My take is that they are covering all bases. Looking at Joel Sherman’s column of today, Sherman writes of Cashman stating that the Yankees will not sign C.C. and Teixeira in tandem. As I stated, agreed, now that they have Swisher. Cashman says, “at the price tags I have read, that is fantasy land, not reality land” meaning getting C.C. and Teixeira.

Continuing on in Sherman’s column of today, he writes that the plan mimics the Yanks’ 2004-2005 offseason, one in which they decided that they could afford EITHER an ace (the Big Unit) OR a Boras-represented switch-hitter (Carlos Beltran). They opted for Randy Johnson and used the rest of their $$ on (ugh) Pavano and Jaret Wright. I didn’t like it then, that is, the going after the pitcher. I do now. I wanted Beltran in that 2004-2005 offseason. Now, I recognize the need for pitching.

Why the change of heart? Well, I wouldn’t really call it a change of heart. I did recognize the need for pitching in 2004-2005. One that was addressed as best as possible perhaps. But….and this is a BIG DIFFERENCE….I didn’t want Randy Johnson because of his age. At the time of the trade for him, the Big Unit was already 41. Much like I DID NOT WANT Roger Clemens last year at the age of 44 (45 once the 2007 postseason came). Beltran was (and still is) a player IN HIS PRIME…just like C. C. is now. That is the difference between then and now.

Sherman continues on to say that along with C. C., that the Yanks hope to fill out the rotation with a combo of Lowe, Burnett, Perez or Pettitte (he didn’t mention Sheets or Dempster). Here is something I found interesting in Sherman’s column: One Yankees official said that if C. C. were signed, that the Yanks would then turn to a “B” level pitcher for pitcher #2 and then would bypass A. J. and Lowe, concentrating on Perez and Pettitte instead.

That’s interesting. It means that they look at Lowe and A. J. Burnett as “insurance” in case they don’t sign C. C. Fair enough, but that offer to C. C. doesn’t look like the insurance will be necessary. Still, you never know. But Sherman goes on to say that the Yanks’ $209M payroll may be trimmed to $190M for 2009. He quotes Cashman as stating that “there has been speculation that we can pull down 2 or 3 of the top free agents and people are just getting carried away. That is not feasible. That is completely unrealistic.”

Which means what? It means one top-level free agent and filling in the gaps with “B” players. One “B” player has been acquired already—-Swisher. Should C. C. be signed, you then go to Pettitte (one year, less than the $16 M of 2008—$13 M for 2009???) and another lower cost free agent. Which brings us to Perez.

Now I’ll be honest. Perez worries me. Potential is a word meaning you haven’t done it yet. Does Perez have potential? Hell, yes. Consider this list. It states who, at certain ages in their careers, Oliver Perez most resembles. Some names will really stand out. Let me help you by bolding them.

Age 21 David Clyde, 22 Scott Kazmir, 23 Sandy Koufax, 24 Scott Olsen, 25 Frank Viola, 26 Mark Langston

Nice company, no? Perez just turned 27, and you know what they say about lefties developing late. For his career, Perez is 55-60, 4.39, ERA+ 96. Umm….not that great. His 162 game average shows 10-11, 4.39. That ERA+ of 96. Just a tick below average. What’s intriguing is this: 194 2/3 IP. 200 K. Hmmm…..but also 102 walks. Potential that led to 12-10, 2.98 in 2004 for the Pirates at age 22. 15-10, 3.96 in 2007 for the Mets. A nice Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS for the Mets. 239 K in 2004. There is potential there. There is youth (27). There is the possibility of the typical “lefty late bloomer.”

…and then there is the REALITY of 105 walks this year in 194 IP. The 3-13, 6.55 of 2006 put up by Perez in the regular season (Game 7 NLCS be damned). Years with nice K/IP ratios but lousy W-L records and ERAs.

Sabathia had 251 K this year, 209 last year. Perez made $6.5M in 2008.

A rotation of (ages as of opening day 2009) Sabathia (28), Wang (29), Pettitte (36), Perez (27) and Joba (23) is interesting. Three lefties—always good at Yankee Stadium. Youth. Andy would be the only one over 30. Hughes (22) and Kennedy (24) at AAA on the ready. Strikeout pitchers with C. C., Joba and Perez.

There are questions…does Joba continue to progress? Most importantly, what would you get from Perez, the great promise and potential? Or the reality?

I’m torn here. I thought Matt Cain could be a possible steal….youth and potential. Same thing with Zach Greinke. Perez? Hmmm…..It’s a gamble. You really don’t know. Looking at those names and similarities….I mean, throw out Koufax. We won’t go there. But Langston? We’ll take that development, as well as Viola or Kazmir.

Can Perez put together years that his talent suggests? Can he put it all together? I only wish I knew.

A postscript: Mariano Rivera got 3 points in the AL CYA voting, and Mike Mussina got 2 points. They finished 5th and 6th respectively. Rivera has a 2nd, three 3rds and a 5th in CYA voting in his career. Moose has a 2nd, 2 4ths, 3 5ths and 3 6ths to his credit. What is amazing about Mussina’s 2008 season is that it is the first time in SEVEN years he got a CYA vote.